Simulation modeling using @Risk : updated for Version 4 /

Κύριος συγγραφέας: Winston, Wayne L.
Μορφή: Βιβλίο
Γλώσσα: English
Έκδοση: Pacific Grove, CA : Brooks/Cole Pub. Co., c2001.
Θέματα:
Διαθέσιμο Online: Table of contents
Πίνακας περιεχομένων:
  • Machine generated contents note: Chapter 1: What Is Simulation? 1
  • 1.1 Actual Applications of Simulation 2
  • 1.2 What's Ahead? 4
  • 1.3 Simulation Models Versus Analytic Models 6
  • Chapter 2: Random Numbers-The Building Blocks of Simulation 9
  • Problems 11
  • Chapter 3: Using Spreadsheets to Perform Simulations 13
  • Example 3.1: The Newsvendor Problem 13
  • 3.1 Finding a Confidence Interval for Expected Profit 18
  • 3.2 How Many Trials Do We Need? 18
  • 3.3 Determination of the Optimal Order Quantity 19
  • 3.4 Using Excel Data Tables to Repeat a Simulation 24
  • 3.5 Performing the Newsvendor Simulation with the Excel
  • Random Number Generator 28
  • Problems 30
  • Chapter 4: An Introduction to @RISK 33
  • 4.1 Simulating the Newsvendor Example with @RISK 33
  • 4.2 Explanation of Statistical Results 40
  • 4.3 Conclusions 41
  • Chapter 5: Generating Normal Random Variables 43
  • 5.1 Simulating Normal Demand with @RISK 43
  • 5.2 Using the Graph Type Icons 45
  • 5.3 Placing Target Values in the Statistics Output 46
  • 5.4 Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution 46
  • Problems 47
  • Chapter 6: Applications of Simulation to Corporate Financial Planning 49
  • 6.1 Using the Triangular Distribution to Model Sales 57
  • 6.2 Sensitivity Analysis with Tornado Graphs 59
  • 6.3 Sensitivity Analysis with Scenarios 61
  • 6.4 Alternative Modeling Strategies 62
  • Problems 63
  • Chapter 7: Simulating a Cash Budget 69
  • Example 7.1: Cash Budgeting 69
  • Problems 75
  • Chapter 8: A Simulation Approach to Capacity Planning 83
  • Example 8.1: Wozac Capacity Example 83
  • Problems 89
  • Chapter 9: Simulation and Bidding 93
  • 9.1 Uniform Random Variables 93
  • 9.2 A Bidding Example 93
  • Problems 95
  • Chapter 10: Deming's Funnel Experiment 97
  • 10.1 Simulating Rule 1 (Don't Touch That Funnel!) 98
  • 10.2 Simulating Rule 2 100
  • 10.3 Comparison of Rules 1-4 102
  • 10.4 Lesson of the Funnel Experiment 102
  • 10.5 Mathematical Explanation of the Funnel Experiment 102
  • Problems 104
  • Chapter 11: The Taguchi Loss Function 105
  • 11.1 Using @RISK to Quantify Quality Loss 106
  • Problems 108
  • Chapter 12: The Use of Simulation in Project Management 111
  • Example 12.1: The Widgetco Example 111
  • 12.1 Estimating Probability Distribution of Project Completion Time 113
  • 12.2 Determining the Probability That an Activity Is Critical 117
  • 12.3 The Beta Distribution and Project Management 118
  • Problems 120
  • Chapter 13: Simulating Craps (and Other Games) 123
  • Example 13.1: Simulating Craps 123
  • 13.1 Confidence Interval for Winning at Craps 125
  • problems 126
  • Chapter 14: Using Simulation to Determine Optimal Maintenance Policies 129
  • Example 14.1 129
  • Problems 133
  • Chapter 15: Using the Weibull Distribution to Model Machine Life 135
  • Example 15.1: Simulating Equipment Replacement Decisions 136
  • Problems 139
  • Chapter 16: Simulating Stock Prices and Options 141
  • 16.1 Modeling the Price of a Stock 141
  • 16.2 Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of Stock Returns
  • from Historical Data 142
  • 16.3 What Is an Option? 144
  • 16.4 Pricing a Call Option 145
  • Example 16.1a: Pricing a European Call Option with @RISK 145
  • 16.5 Analyzing a Portfolio of Investments 148
  • Example 16.1b: Simulating Portfolio Return 149
  • Problems 153
  • Chapter 17: Pricing Path-Dependent and Exotic Options 157
  • Example 17.1: Pricing a Path-Dependent Option 158
  • Problems 160
  • Chapter 18: Using Immunization to Manage Interest Rate Risk 161
  • 18.1 Duration 164
  • 18.2 Convexity 165
  • 18.3 Immunization Against Interest Rate Risk 165
  • Example 18.1: Immunization Using Solver 165
  • 18.4 Better Models'for Interest Rate Risk 172
  • Problems 172
  • Chapter 19: Hedging with Futures 175
  • 19.1 Hedging with Futures: The Basics 175
  • 19.2 Modeling Futures Risk with @RISK 176
  • Problems 179
  • Chapter 20: Modeling Market Share 183
  • Example 20.1a: Market Share Simulation 183
  • 20.1 Is Advertising Worthwhile? 185
  • Example 20. b: Advertising Effectiveness 185
  • 20.2 To Coupon or Not to Coupon? 187
  • Example 20.1c: Should Coke Give Out Coupons? 187
  • Problems 189
  • Chapter 21: Generating Correlated Variables: Designing a New Product 193
  • Example 21.1 193
  • Problems 200
  • Chapter 22: Simulating Sampling Plans with the Hypergeometric
  • Distribution 205
  • Example 22.1: Simulating a Sampling Plan 206
  • Problems 207
  • Chapter 23: Simulating Inventory Models 209
  • Example 23.1: Simulating a Periodic Review Inventory System 210
  • Problems 214
  • Chapter 24: Simulating a Single-Server Queuing System 217
  • Example 24.1: Queuing Simulation in RISK 217
  • 24.1 Estimating the Operating Characteristics of a Queuing System 223
  • Problems 224
  • Index 225.